Greece's exit from the EU. Greece is leaving the European Union! Germany no longer objects. Well, in general about Greece and Greeks in the European Union. The IMF and the issue of debt forgiveness

“Greece is finally freed from the shackles of global creditors. Having won the elections, we are ready to create a new country,” said Alexis Tsipras, leader of the radical left-wing party SYRIZA, after his party won 149 in the parliamentary elections out of 300 parliamentary mandates. This happened at the end of January 2015, and a few days later the parliament approved his appointment as prime minister of the country.

In his first address to the people, Alexis Tsipras said that Greece was saying goodbye to a long period of austerity and that social benefits and salaries in the public sector would soon go up. Most Greeks welcomed the news, although Tsipras' opponents wondered where the new government would get the money to boost social benefits, given that the country's public debt reached 185% of GDP in 2015 and international lenders were about to refuse financing.

But all this was not important, because the main argument of Alexis Tsipras, thanks to which he won the sympathy of the Greeks, was the idea of ​​​​the country’s possible exit from the euro zone and the EU itself. According to Georgius Dzogopolous from the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy, being in opposition, left-wing radicals could operate with this slogan, but now they need to forget about it or make concrete decisions.

Now the story of Athens leaving the EU has been a little forgotten, Greece has received another tranche of aid worth 60 billion euros, and passions have calmed down a little. “The Greeks are so accustomed to living in the EU, and most importantly, accustomed to fairly high social standards, that they will not vote to leave the Union,” the expert assures.

Sandy foundation

In 1974, a revolution took place in Greece, which marked the end of the rule of the junta of “black colonels”. Soon after, the country's democratic forces applied to join the EU. Politicians appealed to the fact that the “cradle of democracy” cannot be outside the Union, which considers freedom and equality to be the main values. The European Union was also not very opposed to this desire, although it was more political than economic.

Politicians in Paris and Brussels feared the strengthening of dictatorship in the Mediterranean. And Greece, which had just overthrown an authoritarian regime and was on the brink of war with Turkey over Cyprus, was the first candidate to join. Moreover, as Fiona Mullen from Sapienta Economics Ltd notes, at that time many EU institutions were just being formed, and even the Union itself did not know what it would be like. Therefore, granting membership to such a small country as Greece was not a problem.

And only at the beginning of the 21st century the situation began to change. Greece has expressed a desire to join the euro zone. Athens' desire was understandable, because according to the World Bank, the economies of the countries that then introduced the euro grew faster by 5-10% than in the EU member countries that had not yet switched to the single currency. But in order to join the eurozone, it was necessary to meet certain conditions. The main one concerned the size of the budget deficit - it should have been no more than 3% of GDP. And in 1998, Athens showed a budget deficit of 3.38%. Today, experts are confident that Greece then manipulated the indicators, and the country’s budget deficit never reached this figure. According to Guntram Wolf of the Brugel think tank, the budget deficit was then at least 5-6% of GDP. “To justify Greece, it must be said that many countries underestimated the budget deficit before qualifying for the euro zone. Although the Greeks did it too much,” says the expert.

As a result, Greece was admitted to the eurozone in 2001. Even then, European officials said that Athens should carry out radical reforms, large-scale privatization, and most importantly, not rush to raise social standards. But the country's authorities immediately began raising wages and pensions, based on internal eurozone standards. According to Eurostat, from 2002 to 2007, social spending in Greece increased by 200%, and no one questioned where the country got the money to finance it. According to experts, Brussels was well aware that Greece was providing them with unrealistic figures, but, nevertheless, they preferred not to raise a scandal.

Athens was well aware that EU subsidies could not end. Moreover, being in the euro zone, the country can increase its GDP dynamics to 6% per year. The main funds for maintaining a high standard of living came from EU funds. In such conditions, few could imagine a return to the national currency. Before the 2008 crisis.

Test of strength

As the world economy collapsed and free money disappeared from the markets, the reality of the Greek economy became clear. Athens said it could no longer cope with its debts and asked for more money so the country could avoid default.

After the 2012 elections, in which moderate parties won a majority, the situation with loan repayments was stabilized. The IMF and the EU, according to Eurostat, have already invested at least $260 billion into the country’s economy, but its balance of payments is not encouraging, the country’s industry has not started working, the fall in GDP in 2016, according to the European Commission, will reach at least 1%, and unemployment is 28.7%. “The danger is that Greece could turn into a country that will constantly demand money. After all, youth unemployment there has already reached 80%,” says Douglas Eliot of The Brookings Institution.

But even in such conditions, the radicals from SYRIZA are in no hurry to leave the euro zone. They understand that in this case they will need to leave the EU, and in reality no one wants this. In addition, if the drachma is introduced, the country will not be able to ensure the stability of its currency and will default, which means all the money that the EU has already allocated to it will be lost forever. Therefore, even when declaring freedom, Athens understands that high social standards were largely ensured precisely by the money of Brussels. And now a country without a normally functioning industry and inflated payments to state employees will not be able to exist normally on its own. According to Georgius Dzogopolous, in the future these statements about leaving the eurozone will be heard more than once, but will not become real actions - the country is too accustomed to living under the wing of the European Union.

Cthe situation in Greece is so difficult that a number ofpoliticiansdoes not exclude the country's exit from the eurozone and the EU.Even many pro-European politicians realized that the E.U.— bondage for Greece. And leaving the eurozone and the EU is difficult; it will turn into a disaster for Greece. About itwebsitesaid the head of the Institute of Diplomacy and Global Processes of Greece Andreas Andrianopoulos.

Will Greece stay alive outside European Union?

— Mr. Andrianopoulos, events in Greece are now moving so quickly that it is very difficult to keep track of them. What goals does Greece pursue in negotiations with the Eurogroup? Why can't Greece and the European Union come to an agreement?

— This question should be answered by the Greek government, the Prime Minister of Greece. The official version of why Greece and the Eurogroup could not agree is that Athens did not agree to the proposed conditions because they were inconsistent.

However, the most inappropriate of the proposed measures were precisely those proposed by the Greek government. This is a huge taxation and colossal cuts in various benefits. At the same time, the government had previously assured that they would either soften the agreement with creditors or put forward a proposal that would not burden the Greek people. But this government promise was impossible to fulfill. No one will lend money without certain conditions.

And so, after negotiations with the Eurogroup failed, they came up with this idea of ​​a referendum in order to shift the burden of responsibility onto the people. The referendum question was not formulated clearly. Nobody knows the full text of the creditors' proposal. In addition, after Greece announced a referendum, creditors withdrew their proposal.

Greece is in a deadlock. Like Odysseus between Scylla and Charybdis. Whichever option Greece chooses, there will be big problems everywhere.

— Does the Greek government have any plan?in caseWill the country have to leave the euro zone?

- I doubt. And the government says that Greece will not leave the euro zone. Unless they have some secret plan, according to which Greece should leave the euro zone, print the drachma, and so on. And if this plan is implemented, it will be a disaster for the country and the Greek people. People will be pushed to the brink of survival.

And the transition period may take 5-6 years: you will need to create your own industry, establish exports and imports, and resolve currency issues. And how to survive during this period? After all, we need to pay for the gas that we import from Russia. How will we pay? Drachma? Who needs the drachma?

How to pay for food? We import about 80 percent of our products. How to pay for medicines? Most medicines are not of Greek origin. They are manufactured abroad. Unfortunately, leaving the eurozone will result in a humanitarian disaster.

—Is the country really that poor? SheWhatcannot develop outside the European Union?

— We don’t have natural resources, unfortunately. We are not Russia, which has oil, gas, metal. We don't have anything like that. The only thing Greece has is tourism and a navy. But these sectors of the economy are also going through difficult times. Due to taxation, shipping agencies become "flags of convenience".

And for the development of tourism, a stable environment is needed, which Greece does not currently have. The same banks are closing. Tourists come and cannot get money from ATMs for everyday needs. And, of course, the money from tourism is not enough to support the huge public sector that Greece has.

— Could Greece's "Eurorevolt" cause a chain reaction in the European Union?

- I don’t know, it’s hard to say. I don’t think that Greece’s exit from the EU or the collapse of Greece can affect other EU countries, as many believe. The Europeans, by the way, foresaw such a scenario.

This is not 2008 or 2012, when European banks were loaded with Greek bonds. Then, if Greece defaulted, the Europeans would have to cover the deficit in their banks. Now they have gotten rid of Greek bonds. These bonds ended up in the ECB and banks in Cyprus. Why was there a collapse in Cyprus? Because the banks of Cyprus were loaded with Greek bonds.

But the point is not even about the problems in the financial system of the European Union. The main problem lies on the political plane: the eurozone turned out to be not as strong as thought. At the same time, it was believed that the weakest link in the European Union, the eurozone, was Greece. But this is not such a clear-cut question.

As for the interests of Greece, it is currently unprofitable for Athens to leave the European Union. For example, we are now developing cooperation with China. But in this case, Greece is of interest to China as part of the European Union.

The same is true in relations with Russia. We, Russia, our good friend, are much more useful as part of the EU. So I hope we don't leave the EU.

— What did Putin promise Tsipras in St. Petersburg?

— Mr. Tsipras came to St. Petersburg and made a number of statements. But I don’t know what Putin promised him. I don't think Tsipras has a clear plan for the future. At least he doesn't come across as someone who has a good plan. Therefore, Tsipras undermines his credibility, not only from his opponents and enemies, but also from his friends. And this is a big problem.

Well, before I had time to understand the pros and cons of Greece joining the European Union during my recent trip there, I saw the news that Greece could leave. In fact, there have been talks about this since 2011. Greece has always been the most rebellious country against the EU. They are still trying to achieve this. However, we must take into account that there are no procedures for the country to leave the Eurozone yet. Brussels did not foresee such a possibility at the time. And other sources say that this procedure was taken into account in the Lisbon Treaty of 2007. Who will understand them... One thing is clear, that this will affect the economies of all EU countries. And this decision could harm Greece itself more than joining and being in the Eurozone, as some experts believe.

Let me remind you that recently I have been trying to learn more about the economy and everyday life of citizens in the country where I am traveling. Especially those who joined the European Union. This is a rather painful event for many European countries, even for once prosperous Austria. We were only in Greece for two days, and I managed to ask a question that interested me to an elderly man who was our guide on the way back to the airport. He talked about the essence of the issue a little and in the process of talking moved on to other topics. But I will try to convey the general essence of his words by adding some facts from other sources.

The guide began his story with the positive aspects of Greece being in the European Union and the Eurozone. Borders were removed, speculation disappeared, and Greece was able to realize its potential as a trading country, because the Greeks are born traders. And the greatest hope of the Greeks was cash injections for the development of roads, agriculture and other areas of activity that were recognized as priorities for Greece.

And after these words, the guide spoke only about the disadvantages. So, about priorities. The European Union, for example, financed the cultivation of cotton. This means that the lands are taken out of production for other crops, they are relegated to the background. Before joining the EU, the Greeks were exporting agricultural goods, but now they are forced to import them. Previously, in Greece there were sugar factories, knitting factories, shipyards - they had to be closed. Many positions in agriculture and fishing had to be artificially lowered, since the EU established strict quotas for production and storage, and violations of quotas were punishable by fines (remember about). After Greece switched to the euro, prices for almost everything jumped by 20 percent.

Such negative consequences as lower wages, unemployment, and impoverishment of the population were not long in coming. Salaries, according to the guide, were reduced by about a third. If earlier the minimum wage was about 750 euros, now it is about 550. The amount of unemployment benefits was approximately 460, and now is 360 euros. But the most important thing is terrible unemployment, its level in recent years has reached 30% of the population. And the unemployment rate among people under 25 and over 50 is generally terrible - 60-65%. People began to leave en masse to work abroad: to the USA, Canada, Australia, as was the case in the 50s and 60s.

The number of suicides among older people has increased. The fact is that there are very few large companies in Greece, and, on the contrary, family businesses are thriving. If, for example, a government employee or an employee of a private company loses his job, he can somehow survive on unemployment benefits. The situation is completely different for people who are forced to close their business, for example, a store or restaurant. In this case, the person not only does not have any benefits, he is bankrupt with large debts to banks and suppliers. But this is not a reason for suicide. Greeks are proud people. A Greek businessman considers it his duty to achieve a certain social status and maintain it. He gets used to his job and to the fact that he makes his own decisions, works for himself, feeds his family himself. And after bankruptcy, it is not he who feeds, but they feed him; he does not make decisions, but they make them for him. This breaks the Greeks. So, this problem must be considered more broadly: what works in Germany will not work in Greece. Another nation, a different mentality, a different outlook on life. The leadership in the European Union, which makes decisions for the Greeks, does not understand the consequences of these decisions for Greece. Yes, in recent years the situation has begun to improve. The budget for 2013, for the first time in many decades, was reduced to a plus. Well, this is if you do not take into account the need to pay interest on debts (and the amount there is colossal), and now Greece is negotiating to write off part of this interest. According to some reports, the country's public debt is about 340 billion euros! If Greece leaves the euro zone and switches to its own currency, its value will fall greatly and this debt could grow significantly.

If earlier Europe was conventionally divided into Western and Eastern, then after the unification of many countries into the European Union - into Northern and Southern. And with southern countries everything is not so simple. Greece is now experiencing not only an economic but also a political crisis. The next presidential elections are due in two years, but negotiations are underway for early elections. The Germans are making waves in the press, saying that the Greeks are slackers, they don’t want to work, let them sell their Acropolis and pay off their debts. As a result, parties in favor of the country's exit from the European Union began to emerge in Greece. This is despite the fact that Greece received multi-million dollar tranches from the EU. Upon receiving these payments, Greece signed a memorandum undertaking to carry out very painful reforms in the country. This is exactly what happened, only instead of the expected recovery of the country's economy and reunification with the more prosperous countries of Western Europe, the country received an economic crisis, debt, and destruction of agriculture and industry. Greece, at the direction of the EU, relied on the service sector, but lost, losing the opportunity to provide the country with meat, wine, vegetables, fruits, sugar... The Orthodox Church also suffered. Greece is a very religious country, and religion there is closely connected with the state. Which also ran counter to the EU’s views on Greece. Subsequently, it served as a decent instrument of pressure and influence on the country’s leadership from the population.

I also remember the words of the guide on the topic of myths about Greek laziness and idleness. He argued that all these words about how the Greeks don’t want to work and eat, drink, and chat all day are nonsense. Previously, in Greece it was customary that only men worked, and women were the keepers of the home and raised children. And men, in order to provide their families with what they needed, were forced to work hard, sometimes working 2-3 jobs. Well I do not know. I didn’t have time to get to know the Greeks well. But in neighboring Italy we had to deal with the fact that there was nowhere to have lunch during the day. Many establishments operate according to a strange, in our understanding, schedule: from 10 am to 12 pm, and then from 6 pm to 10 pm. During the day there are no chefs to be found; restaurants only offer light snacks. I don't think the situation is much different in Greece.

And a little more about the abstract. In Greece, out of a population of 11 million, there are about 1.5 million illegal immigrants alone. This is a lot for such a small country. We are talking about people from Afghanistan, Pakistan and other poor countries. These are unhappy people who did not come there because of a good life. But despite all this, there is no manifestation of racism in the country. Why is that? This is because in almost every large Greek family there is someone who was in the shoes of these emigrants. The modern Greek diaspora outside Greece itself numbers 10 million people in the world. The Greeks went to the same places they are going now: to Germany, the USA, Australia. For the dirtiest and lowest paid jobs. True, they got back on their feet and improved their financial situation quite quickly. This was partly due to the cohesion of the Greek diaspora, who decided to help their compatriots.

Every day the number of people who are confident that Greece will leave the European Union is increasing. The outcome of the exit can be extremely gloomy, since, subsequently, the balance will disappear, which is already difficult to stay afloat.

The forecasts of experts do not sound particularly positive; headlines in newspapers such as “split of the eurozone”, “panic in the markets” and “domino effect” cause a lot of excitement.

There are no consistent lists on the topic “How should a country's exit from the eurozone proceed,” but many experts and politicians have already made their predictions on this matter.

Consequences for Greece of leaving the European Union

Even if the authorities manage to avoid a big scandal, it will not be possible to avoid the growth of social tension and inter-class misunderstandings.

It is also worth noting the very high probability of military intervention.

A military coup is also a possible outcome.

The central bank will be under pressure not only from investors, but also from political leaders in Europe. The actions of the central bank are difficult to predict, since it is not at all clear what they should do now.

Why can't Greece stay in the European Union?

Despite the fact that leaving the eurozone threatens Greece with all of the above problems, it also becomes impossible for Greece to remain in the European Union.

By remaining in the eurozone, Greece would have to continue its policies of austerity, and of course such policies do not affect the top of the economy, but ordinary people are hit.

The outskirts of large and smaller cities are covered with inscriptions of political and social content. People are rioting.

The European Union’s desire to continue lending to Greece is decreasing every day, especially considering the past deindustrialization.
Of course, the Greeks will have to be punished for leaving the European Union, but they hope for help from Russia and China. In any case, the economic condition of the country will be in decline, and the quality of life will deteriorate.

It's worth noting that most of Greece's debt is interest, and interest on interest.

How will Greece's exit from the eurozone affect other countries?

Will suffer the most Germany. Germany lent Greece a huge amount of money, which Greece is unable to repay, but despite this, Germany fully supports Greece's desire to leave the eurozone. Greece has already sold off several of its islands, but they are unable to pay off the debt.

Many believe that Germany will simply forgive the debt, but the point is that the amount is simply huge and such debts are not forgiven; experts are of the opinion that Germany will still take its toll.

Will suffer the least Russia and Ukraine. The economies of these countries are similar to those of Europe.

How much will it be affected? USA It's quite difficult to say. For the USA, Europe is nothing more than a colony for selling its goods; most likely the USA will not suffer.

Many blame Germany for Greece's exit from the eurozone.

Germany is inclined to dominate Europe, the rest of the European countries are not even close. Germany is not at all interested in the opinions of other countries (France, Italy, Spain and others).

Germany has always professionally become the “guardian of the European essence,” which has not always helped Greece. Previously, France always arose between these countries, which served as a kind of barrier to the emergence of a conflict, but now France politely stepped aside, and Germany sided with Greece, pushing it to leave the eurozone.

Chancellor Angela Merkel and the German Finance Minister said that only Greece's departure from the common currency bloc will help it get out of this crisis with virtually no consequences.

According to Germany, the European Union has already managed to become sufficiently strong after emerging from the global financial crisis of 2012, which means now, with the help of the banking union, as well as the financial stabilization fund, the European Union will not suffer much either, which of course is a rather naive view of what is actually happening.

It is worth noting that initially Greece did not intend to leave the European Union, Greece only wanted to leave the eurozone and introduce its own federal currency, but the head of the European Parliament Martin Schulz said that when leaving the eurozone, Greece would have to leave the European Union, and Greece would also be left without monetary support from them.

It was this statement that made Greece decide to leave the European Union, since it became impossible to remain in the eurozone.

The European Parliament initially hoped for support from Germany, but it took the side of Greece and continues to support it to this day.

Many leading politicians expected Greece to fall into a crisis that would be impossible to control and could lead to the collapse of the entire country, but despite all the above problems, as well as the skepticism of other countries, Greece managed to avoid the worst.
Perhaps if Greece had lost the support of Germany, then everything would have been much worse, but Germany helped them, now Greece's main problem is debt repayment.

It is worth noting that, despite all the recent events, and the fact that the standard of living has deteriorated, Greece is still one of the best countries to live. She easily beat such countries as Russia, Portugal, Italy and others.

When rumors about Greece's exit from the European Union began to appear, the European Parliament was convinced of Germany's support and expected a trick from Russia, which at that time was Greece's main partner, and with Greece's support, it received strong leverage over Athens. By the way, now these levers are in the hands of Germany.

Now, the economic situation in Greece is not in the best condition and the main thing is that it is not clear how to get out of this situation. The main question today is whether Greece, after receiving German support, will be able to get help from Russia and China.

If China does not raise any particular doubts and has practically given its consent, Russia prefers to remain silent, since for now it is busy resolving conflicts with Ukraine.

If Greece manages to gain the support of Russia and China, then most likely they will be able to avoid major problems.

Three years ago, two rounds of elections were held in Greece, according to the results of which the state could leave the euro zone. However, then the decision was made to stay, then this allowed us to avoid many sad consequences both for the country itself and for the European Union. However, another election is expected on January 25, the results of which will determine Athens' membership in the euro zone. If Greece leaves the eurozone, what will be the consequences? Will this decision be a wise one?

The mechanism for Greece to leave the eurozone, or grexit as it is called, is quite simple. After the denomination of debt obligations and domestic assets into drachma, the currency will be immediately changed. The rate will probably be 1 to 1 euro. After this, the Bank of Greece will be separated from the ECB, and then the macro regulator will begin to pursue its monetary policy through transactions with banks. In turn, their balance sheet will also be maintained in drachmas.

But even with the parity value of the European and Greek currencies, the latter will soon depreciate. Three years ago, the International Monetary Fund predicted the decline would reach 50%. For the Greek economy, such a devaluation will be useful, because the competitiveness of Athens will increase. So, for example, in 2002, Argentina stopped pegging its own currency to the US dollar, as a result of which the growth rate of the state's economy increased, although this time coincided with an increase in the cost of raw materials. A number of experts believe that the Greeks will be able to repeat a similar scenario through the development of the tourism business.

Negative consequences of Greece's exit from the eurozone

In the short term, the Greek economy will experience a strong shock. So, for example, it will not take a single month to introduce a new currency, as a result of which some chaos will be created, although a significant proportion of payments are carried out by non-cash method.

In this case, the likelihood that Greece will leave the European Union increases, as a result the state will be cut off from the single market, as well as regional financial assistance. Consumer prices will rise sharply as import costs become unusually high. In 2012, the International Monetary Fund predicted a price increase of no less than 35%. Greece's exit from the European Union will undoubtedly reduce consumer and business confidence.

The reasons discussed above reduce the likelihood of the Argentine development scenario. The Greek economy is likely to fall into recession, which will replace the recovery that has begun. According to experts from the International Monetary Fund, grexit will lead to an 8 percent drop in GDP.

Do not forget that the Greek government will have difficulties with lending abroad. Of course, it can lead to the fact that domestic debts will be denominated, but this will not be possible with deposits opened in dollars. As a result, the exchange rate value of the drachma will decrease, and a default may occur in the country. The consequences will be claims by holders of new government bonds, for example those that were issued in 2012 during the restructuring.

What has changed in three years

According to a number of parameters, the current position of Greece is more favorable than three years ago. For example, according to the EC, last year the state’s primary surplus reached 2.7% of GDP. Let us remember that in 2012 there was a 3.6 percent deficit. In 2008, Athens' current account deficit reached 15% of gross domestic product; today it is balanced. Therefore, many expect that leaving the eurozone will not lead to a significant budget collapse, and that export growth will have a positive impact on the country’s balance of payments. At the same time, modern Greece has great opportunities for development in the euro zone, exit from which will put an end to the hope for an economic revival. In 2014, the country's economy began to expand after a protracted recession, when it collapsed by 27%. Today, the competitiveness of the state has increased, this was achieved through a significant reduction in wages.

Today, Athens' public debt amounts to 175% of GDP, but since the main creditors are its EU partners, there is no reason for great concern. Moreover, its maintenance has been delayed for 10 years.

What does grexit mean for the European Union?

If we talk about Europeans, Greece's exit from the eurozone will have a number of negative consequences for them, but they will not be as significant as three years earlier. Greek lenders will be forced to become more disciplined, and peripheral EU states will see how important it is to follow the rules exactly.

At the moment, the risks of a collapse of the eurozone, which could be caused by a Greek exit, are not as high as in 2012. This is explained by the emergence of a permanent Reserve Fund, as well as the Bank of Europe's willingness to help governments. Yet the European economy will face a shock. According to JPMorgan Chase's forecast, the GDP of the euro zone countries will be reduced by 1.5% over the next year and a half, and a precedent will be set for leaving the single currency zone.

As you can see, Greece's exit from the eurozone can be resolved more effectively, but in this case it will be shown that the single currency zone may crack, and this in turn increases risks.