Euro forecast for April May. Euro exchange rate forecast in Russia for April. What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors influencing exchange rates

Euro forecast for April 2019: fresh in the table from an expert for every day of the month with rates. During the first quarter, the euro fluctuated by almost 4 rubles, which sowed a barely noticeable panic among owners of large sums.

In three days, the euro has grown by almost 5 rubles - this is the beginning of the sanctions! WITH A serious factor in the growth of the euro was the collapse of the Russian stock exchange that occurred a few days ago. All this is a serious cause for concern for those who are planning a trip or major purchases in Europe, or repaying a foreign currency loan.

The European currency is one of the most reliable in the long term, since even the American dollar will not have the most favorable consequences in the nth number of years. But for Russians, when dealing with EUR, extreme situations always arise - someone can earn good money, while others end up in large debts.

So, the euro forecast for April 2019 and the main trends that await this currency.

After peak figures (85.95 rubles) demonstrated a couple of years ago, this currency began to decline with minor stops. Oil prices began to rise, the Central Bank began to influence the monetary system, actively using its favorite methods of “freezing” and “sterilization.” However, as you might guess, such measures cannot maintain a long-term effect given the regression of the real sector of the economy. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts an economic decline of almost 5% and, judging by the declared data on the decline in GDP and trade turnover, these are still optimistic prophecies.

Oil is stable and even growing. She began to grow little by little. Therefore, the euro began to grow. From May last year to the current moment, it has increased by 10 rubles. But the political situation and sanctions are unstable.

The latest forecast for April 2019 is shown in the table:

April number

Euro forecasts for April 2019 imply a significant increase to 90 rubles, with stops to 70-74 rubles. In early April, the euro exchange rate will be around 75-85 rubles. Further at the peak of trading there will be a big jump, then a smooth rollback and growth again. However, much depends on the resumption of trading in a number of areas that are significant for Russia.

After all, in fact, the euro changes its value little. This is the ruble falling.

It should be noted that even if the price of oil increases, there will be no return of the economy to previous levels, since speculative prices of black gold will not return to their previous level. The manufacturing-based European economy, which accounts for about 27% of global GDP, will still dominate the Russian commodity economy, which occupies 2-3% of GDP and shows a steady decline under sanctions. So the forecast for the euro is very rosy, especially in the long term. This is also indicated by the data on the 4-year cycle. The situation is similar with the forecast for the dollar in April; the American currency is more convenient from a liquidity point of view. However, the euro is more stable for long-term investments.

The euro forecast for April 2019 in the table assumes only estimated rates, but very close to the real situation.

The euro, like any other currency, has never been at constant rest, but over the past few years it has risen significantly. Before the onset of the global crisis, euros could be exchanged for rubles in the following corridor: 40-50 rubles.

A huge and sharp jump was provoked on Black Friday in the stock market and the euro reached the level of 76 rubles. Then, by the end of 2015, its figure increased to 86 rubles and this became a record level that the European currency has ever reached.

Are there prerequisites for growth?

The euro is likely to continue to rise, but there may also be a struggle due to the likely intervention of the European Central Bank (ECB). That's what new research suggests about the outlook facing the world's largest currency pair.

Experts today see only limited growth potential for the euro, at a level above 1.20, the ECB will probably try to stop the momentum through verbal interventions. This is exactly the conclusion that economic consultants made. However, the position may be revised in the future, it all depends on future dynamics.

The euro has been rising since French President Emmanuel Macron took office. But it's not just the removal of political risk that is pushing the single currency higher, the euro has also received support from the ECB, which will soon begin winding down its stimulus program and eventually begin raising rates. The ECB does not want the euro to be too strong, however, as soon as it starts to put downward pressure on inflation, imports will become cheaper.

Taking into account inflation, the ECB is doing everything in its power to help the currency; they will not be happy with positive results, which is why they decided to intervene in the course of events. The ECB expects gradual monetary normalization. Their work can be interpreted as verbal interventions that should limit the Euro-US Dollar and assess the potential.

The dollar, meanwhile, rose strongly in late 2016 amid promises of fiscal stimulus from Donald Trump. Through tax breaks and infrastructure spending, it was thought to add fuel to the engines of economic growth, speed up the US recovery, and lead to a faster normalization of Fed policy.

However, now this fantasy has evaporated and the market has sharply lowered expectations. Interest rates in the US will be up to 1.5% by the end of 2019, which is a much flatter trajectory than the Fed expects - up to 2.25%. Even three bets since December last year, executed with perfect regularity, were able to convince the market that we were seeing the beginning of a rate hike cycle.

The Fed will not stop until inflation recovers, but as a result of its actions, the dollar has only significantly depreciated in value, while the euro has slightly strengthened its position. The Russian ruble remains an outside observer and is only preparing to adapt to fluctuations.

Trump's failure to live up to his key commitments ratified by Congress and the Senate is a real problem. The scandal with Russia is now also having a significant impact, which could cause the overthrow of the entire administrative elite of America. As long as this situation persists, the euro will grow and it is worth paying attention to this.

US sanctions are being imposed on Russia and threaten its ties with Europe. Tolerating unilateral US sanctions has only hurt Russian banks, which are now expanding, and that could put pressure on allies, with the risk that the dollar could be threatened as the world's reserve currency. It is difficult to say what the top leaders are trying to achieve, because it is impossible to completely abandon the dollar or euro, through which all foreign economic transactions are carried out.

What affects the position of the euro in Russia

Expert forecasts are, of course, good. But you shouldn’t always trust them blindly. As practice shows, no more than 80 percent of them come true. And only if we are talking about forecasts for the short term. It is very difficult to accurately predict the behavior of a currency. This is due to the fact that its movement in one direction or another depends on many factors, the nature of which is very difficult to predict.

And the first thing you need to pay attention to is the behavior of another currency - the dollar: the behavior of the euro depends on the demand for the latter. Thus, when the demand for one currency stabilizes, a slowdown or fall in another is noticed.

The analysts' forecast is based not only on observing the relationship between the two currencies. The change in the position of the euro is also influenced by the economic and political situation both in Russia and in the countries of the European Union.

The reasons why the European currency has recently seen rapid growth include:

• sanctions imposed by the European Union and preventing free trade - while they remain in effect, there is no need to talk about any stability of the European currency;
• rising fuel prices;
• cheaper oil and a decrease in its exports to the West - until regular and stable oil supplies are resumed, it will be problematic to be responsible for the accuracy of forecasts - the currency can behave in any way;
• inflation and other factors.

The Ministry of Finance believes that no sharp push for the worse should be expected in the near future. Moreover, he predicts that the euro will fluctuate between 43-45 rubles. Of course, it’s hard to believe. Moreover, Sberbank experts predict a completely different development of events. So, on a monthly basis for the first half of 2019, the picture, according to Sberbank, will look like this:

The data clearly shows that the exchange rate will not be stable, and April will have its highest value.

There are other opinions of independent experts. For example, some foreign analysts believe that by mid-2019 the euro exchange rate will reach one hundred rubles. This is explained by the fact that as a result of sanctions and a decrease in the level of exports of goods, the Russian economy will not rise. True, not everyone is so pessimistic: most foreign analysts still agree that the euro will not rise above eighty rubles.

A number of experts do not exclude a short-term depreciation of the euro: this will happen if Russia is able to restore oil sales at a higher price.

Such a difference in the opinions of analysts and experts makes it clear that forecast values ​​should not be trusted. You need to independently monitor the economic and political situation both in the country and in the world. If you already have some savings in European currency, then you don’t need to change anything. But to buy a new batch, it is better to wait for the price of the currency to decline.

The full euro exchange rate forecast for 2019 is here:

Video

Keep in mind that exchange rates set by the central bank do not change on weekends! In the table below you can see the dollar and euro exchange rates for today, tomorrow and the week ahead. If you are interested in the future fate of currencies, follow the news and monitor quotes updates.

	Dollar exchange rate	Euro exchange rate	Ruble's exchange rate
There will be an official course for 10.30.2019 (we will find out via 20 hours)	?	?	?
Current official rate as of 10/29/2019 the best rates in banks	63.8700 -13 kop.	70.8382 -28 kop.	went up in price + 0.29%
Register and trade on Forex without investment - you will receive starting capital as a gift! If you trade successfully, you can withdraw your money!
Since the last official exchange rate was determined on October 29, 2019	went down -21 kop.	went down -25 kop.	went up in price +0.34% (oil during this time: +0.37% )
In the last hour	decreased slightly -4 kopecks	dropped a little -9 kopecks	increased in price insignificantly +0.09%

Current exchange rates on the InstaForex exchange

Monthly dollar and euro exchange rate forecast

Exchange rate forecast for October
date	Day of the week	Well	Max.	Min.	Well	Max.	Min.
28.10.2019	Monday	64.16	65.12	63.20	71.11	72.18	70.04
29.10.2019	Tuesday	64.42	65.39	63.45	71.45	72.52	70.38
30.10.2019	Wednesday	64.24	65.20	63.28	71.09	72.16	70.02
31.10.2019	Thursday	64.37	65.34	63.40	71.10	72.17	70.03

Exchange rate forecast for November		Dollar exchange rate forecast for the week and month			Euro exchange rate forecast for the week and month
date	Day of the week	Well	Max.	Min.	Well	Max.	Min.
01.11.2019	Friday	64.00	64.96	63.04	70.97	72.03	69.91
05.11.2019	Tuesday	64.00	64.96	63.04	71.33	72.40	70.26
06.11.2019	Wednesday	63.77	64.73	62.81	71.33	72.40	70.26
07.11.2019	Thursday	63.80	64.76	62.84	71.41	72.48	70.34
08.11.2019	Friday	63.84	64.80	62.88	71.35	72.42	70.28
11.11.2019	Monday	63.61	64.56	62.66	71.32	72.39	70.25
12.11.2019	Tuesday	63.18	64.13	62.23	71.05	72.12	69.98
13.11.2019	Wednesday	62.88	63.82	61.94	70.83	71.89	69.77
14.11.2019	Thursday	63.12	64.07	62.17	71.00	72.07	69.94
15.11.2019	Friday	63.40	64.35	62.45	71.23	72.30	70.16
18.11.2019	Monday	62.98	63.92	62.04	70.86	71.92	69.80
19.11.2019	Tuesday	62.86	63.80	61.92	70.78	71.84	69.72
20.11.2019	Wednesday	62.85	63.79	61.91	70.93	71.99	69.87
21.11.2019	Thursday	63.15	64.10	62.20	71.26	72.33	70.19
22.11.2019	Friday	63.40	64.35	62.45	71.54	72.61	70.47
25.11.2019	Monday	63.80	64.76	62.84	72.11	73.19	71.03
26.11.2019	Tuesday	63.85	64.81	62.89	71.99	73.07	70.91
27.11.2019	Wednesday	64.06	65.02	63.10	71.74	72.82	70.66
28.11.2019	Thursday	64.21	65.17	63.25	72.07	73.15	70.99
29.11.2019	Friday	64.03	64.99	63.07	71.66	72.73	70.59

What determines the dollar exchange rate, factors influencing exchange rates

If you are interested in buying or selling euros or dollars, the exchange rate is an important indicator for you every day. Today, both currencies are showing significant volatility. This is primarily due to political factors.

What affects the exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro:

• decisions made by diplomats within the framework of international cooperation. Yesterday Angela Merkel announced her readiness to reach an agreement with Russia - the euro fell slightly against the ruble. Tomorrow Donald Trump will release a new package of sanctions - the dollar exchange rate will skyrocket. Therefore, if you want to play on the currency exchange or make money by buying/selling currencies, you need to follow political news;
• economic situation in the country and in the world. Yes, even economic changes within Russia affect the position of the ruble, and, accordingly, the exchange rate of foreign currencies to it;
• decisions of the Central Bank. It is known that at the beginning of the aggravation of relations with Europe and the United States, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tried to balance the jumps in exchange rates against the ruble using its own resources. Today, the volatility of the dollar and euro has decreased slightly, and the system of containment of the Russian banking network played a significant role in this.

Previous rate forecasts

We all remember the times when the dollar exchange rate did not exceed 35 rubles, and the euro remained at the level of 39-45 rubles. Unfortunately or fortunately, these rates have not appeared on display boards in banks and exchange offices for several years. Below is our forecast of exchange rates a few days before the rapid fall of the ruble. This information is presented just like that, as a keepsake...

Dear visitors to the site “Currency Rate Forecast for Tomorrow”, please note that the forecast for the dollar and euro exchange rates is given for informational purposes only and cannot be regarded as a guide to action! We are not responsible for the accuracy of these forecasts, because... exchange rates depend on a huge number of factors and even the most experienced trader, broker, financier (yes, in general, anyone) will not be able to predict the exchange rate for tomorrow, for a week or for a month with 100% accuracy!

Many Russian residents prefer to keep money in euros, since this currency is relatively stable. What will be the euro forecast for April 2018 and is it worth continuing to trust the currency? The latest news says that at least for the first half of 2018, we should expect a gradual increase in the euro/ruble exchange rate. This fact was confirmed by the Central Bank.

CONTENT

What affects the position of the euro in Russia

Expert forecasts are, of course, good. But you shouldn’t always trust them blindly. As practice shows, no more than 80 percent of them come true. And only if we are talking about forecasts for the short term. It is very difficult to accurately predict the behavior of a currency. This is due to the fact that its movement in one direction or another depends on many factors, the nature of which is very difficult to predict.

And the first thing you need to pay attention to is the behavior of another currency - the dollar: the behavior of the euro depends on the demand for the latter. Thus, when the demand for one currency stabilizes, a slowdown or fall in another is noticed.

The analysts' forecast is based not only on observing the relationship between the two currencies. The change in the position of the euro is also influenced by the economic and political situation both in Russia and in the countries of the European Union.

The reasons why the European currency has recently seen rapid growth include:

• sanctions imposed by the European Union and preventing free trade - while they remain in effect, there is no need to talk about any stability of the European currency;
• rising fuel prices;
• cheaper oil and a decrease in its exports to the West - until regular and stable oil supplies are resumed, it will be problematic to be responsible for the accuracy of forecasts - the currency can behave in any way;
• inflation and other factors.

The Ministry of Finance believes that no sharp push for the worse should be expected in the near future. Moreover, he predicts that the euro will fluctuate between 43-45 rubles. Of course, it’s hard to believe. Moreover, Sberbank experts predict a completely different development of events. So, monthly for the first half of 2018, the picture, according to Sberbank, will look like this:

The data clearly shows that the exchange rate will not be stable, and April will have its highest value.

There are other opinions of independent experts. For example, some foreign analysts believe that by mid-2018 the euro exchange rate will reach one hundred rubles. This is explained by the fact that as a result of sanctions and a decrease in the level of exports of goods, the Russian economy will not rise. True, not everyone is so pessimistic: most foreign analysts still agree that the euro will not rise above eighty rubles.

A number of experts do not exclude a short-term depreciation of the euro: this will happen if Russia is able to restore oil sales at a higher price.

Such a difference in the opinions of analysts and experts makes it clear that forecast values ​​should not be trusted. You need to independently monitor the economic and political situation both in the country and in the world. If you already have some savings in European currency, then you don’t need to change anything. But to buy a new batch, it is better to wait for the price of the currency to decline.

The full euro exchange rate forecast for 2018 is here:

Video