"Tulip Fever", or the History of the first financial pyramid (7 photos). Holland and tulips

Tulip mania- this is a classic example of a stock market bubble and the subsequent collapse with all the ensuing consequences. It cannot be said that the tulip crisis was the first crisis in history. There were crises in ancient civilizations, but the tulip crisis in Holland was generated by speculation, and not by a series of crop failures, for example. The history of tulip mania is as follows.

In the first half of the 17th century, tulips were brought to Holland from Turkey. The first tulip flowers were not particularly beautiful, however, experiments on breeding tulips yielded results and the number of varieties increased sharply. Large areas were sown with tulips, and their popularity grew. The prices for tulips also increased. For a couple of onions of some varieties, the inhabitants of Holland were ready to give entire fortunes.

Gradually, more and more people began to get involved in the tulip trade. The Dutch sold their property cheaply and bought expensive tulip bulbs. However, at that time the concepts of “expensive” and “cheap” were different. Some speculators made a fortune from a couple of transactions with tulips. Seeing this, a huge number of people began to buy and sell tulips.
There was a physical shortage of tulips and people began trading futures and options on future tulip bulbs. That is, tulips that had not yet grown were bought and sold by people. With the increased shortage, prices rose rapidly.

The collapse happened very quickly. In February 1637, prices began to fall sharply. People began to get rid of the bulbs and by the end of 1637 a tulip bulb could be bought for less than one percent of its previous price.

The consequences were sad - almost everyone who participated in the speculation lost, if not everything, then almost everything. The only positive point in this story is that Holland now remains the main producer of tulips (probably it was a pity to throw away the depreciated bulbs, they decided to breed and sell to others).

What conclusion can be drawn from this story? Let's look at the 2007 US subprime mortgage crisis. There are more similarities between real estate and the tulip story (which is almost 400 years old!) than might seem at first glance. So, theses:

1. Tulips and American houses are very sweet things to the eye, and both were desirable, if not for the entire population, then at least for most of it;
2. Prices for real estate and tulips began to gradually rise, and then a real boom began, which was fueled by various “success stories”;
3. The demand in both cases was predominantly speculative, i.e. few people were going to own an asset, be it an onion or a house;
4. The most important point is that the real product has ceased to be an object of speculation. The so-called “securitization” took place, i.e. obligations to supply tulips and pay a mortgage for a house were presented in the form of securities (from the English security - security). These securities became the subject of speculation and, as a result, collapse. An important point is that almost no one could have imagined that the price of the underlying asset, i.e. tulips and real estate may someday go down. This belief turned “highly reliable” assets into “toxic” ones.
5. And one more feature - the entire economy and foreign “investors” suffered. Only in the case of real estate has globalization played a role, which is why the consequences of the current crisis are more severe than 400 years ago.

Conclusion: what is happening now with the global economy is the consequences of another tulip mania, only on a larger scale.

The scientific publication Smithsonian published material stating that the “tulip fever,” which is considered to be the first stock market bubble, was invented by Dutch Calvinists. People were chasing profit, but not in such large numbers as is described in textbooks and works of fiction. And this race certainly did not cause the collapse of the economy and industry. We have prepared a Russian-language adaptation of this article.

General madness

When the first tulips were grown in the Middle East, the whole world went crazy. Some varieties were worth more than gold. There is a legend that a sailor was accused of a criminal offense and sent to prison simply because he confused a rare tulip tuber with an ordinary onion and ate it for lunch. One bulb of the rare variety Semper Augustus, with flowers of red and white petals, cost as much as a mansion in a fashionable area of ​​Amsterdam, with a personal trainer and a garden to boot. As the price of a tulip on the market increased, a wave of speculation began - traders raised prices for bulbs to the skies. And then, as usually happens with stock market bubbles, the tulip market “burst,” leaving hundreds of sellers without income.

Dynamics of the index of futures (green) and option (red) prices for onions in 1635-1637 according to Thompson. Image: Wikimedia Commons

For several decades, economists have used the story of “tulip mania” as an example of the dangers and instability of the free market. Writers and historians have written hundreds of books about the absurdity of events. A film was even made on this topic, it is called “Tulip Fever”, its plot is based on the book by Deborah Moggch.

There is just one small caveat: this story is not true.

To understand the truth, you need to understand history

What really happened and how did it happen that the history of tulip speculation in Holland was so distorted? Anne Goldgar, professor of early modern history at King's College London, discovered the truth while researching archives to create Tulip Mania: Money, Honor and Knowledge in Golden Age Holland.

“I always joke that the book should be called Tulip Mania: It's Boring Than You Think,” says Goldgar. “People love the legend because they think they can learn a lesson from it. I think this opinion is wrong."

Before putting the “tulip fever” on a par with the South Sea bubble, which happened in the 1700s in England, with the railway bubble of the 19th century, with the dot-com and bitcoin bubbles, it is worth studying a few of Professor Goldgar’s arguments and understanding what was happening in the Dutch society at the turn of the 17th century.

It's worth starting with the fact that the country experienced a major demographic shift during the War of Independence with Spain. During this period, merchants arrived in major port cities: Amsterdam, Haarlem, Delft and began trading, including the famous Dutch East India Company. This brought huge income to Holland, even despite the martial law in the country. The newly independent nation was led by an urban oligarchy of wealthy merchants, unlike other European countries of the era, which were controlled by the nobility. As a result, new faces, ideas and money helped revolutionize the Dutch economy in the late 16th century.

As the economy has changed, social interactions and cultural values ​​have changed. A growing interest in natural history and a love of the exotic among the merchant class caused prices to rise for goods from the east, including those from the Ottoman Empire. People of all social classes had to develop in new directions, which appeared with the influx of new goods. For example, a fish auctioneer created the manuscript “The Book of Whales” and this work allowed him to meet with the President of Holland. The Dutch botanist Clusius created the botanical garden at Leiden University in 1590 and the tulip quickly rose to a place of honor.

“Wild tulips, found in the valleys of the Tien Shan, began to be bred in Istanbul in 1055, and in the 15th century they already became symbols of the Ottomans. For example, Sultan Mehmed II had 12 tulip gardens, which required 920 gardeners to maintain,” writes Anna Pavord, gardening correspondent for The Independent online publication, in her book “Tulips.”

The Dutch discovered that tulips can be grown from seeds and shoots of the mother bulb. It takes 7 to 12 years for a seed to grow into a bulb and a flower to bloom. And an already ripe bulb can become a tulip in a year. Of particular interest to the botanist Clusius and the “tulip speculators” were “broken bulbs.” The petals of the tulips that grew from these bulbs were not monochromatic, but multi-colored. It was impossible to predict what the future flower would look like. Naturalists came up with ways to reproduce such bulbs and buds, as the demand for this rare species constantly grew. As it turned out later, this effect was obtained due to the fact that the bulbs hurt. They were frail and rarely produced flowers.

“The high market value of tulips, which authors studying “tulip mania” write about, was caused by the prices of especially beautiful “broken bulbs,” writes economist Peter Garber, “since it was impossible to predict what a flower sprouted from such a bulb would look like.” “Tulip mania could be described as a game of chance among growers who sought to produce buds of increasingly unusual colors.”

Printed report of the results of the auction in Alkmaar on February 5, 1637. Image: Wikimedia commons

Dutch speculators spent all their money on bulbs and then grew flowers, of which perhaps only one would make a profit. “As luxury goods, tulips fit well into the culture of big money and the new cosmopolitanism,” writes Goldgar. Tulips required expertise, experience in appreciating beauty and exoticism and, of course, a lot of money.

The beginning of a legend

This is where the myth comes into play. According to popular legend, "tulip mania" swept through all levels of Dutch society in 1630. “So great was the desire of the Dutch to possess rare bulbs that the ordinary industry was abandoned, and the population, down to the lowest ranks, began to trade in tulips,” writes Scottish journalist Charles Mackay in his popular 1841 work, Extremely Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. According to this work, everyone from the richest merchants to the poorest chimney sweeps bought tulip bulbs and resold them at a higher price. The largest number of companies selling tulips was at the end of 1636, and in February the market began to burst at the seams. More and more people went bankrupt in hopes of buying the coveted bulbs, and more and more merchants, left in debt, became bankrupt. At least that's what was always thought.

“In reality, few people were involved and the economic consequences were not that significant,” writes Goldgar, “I could not find information in the archives about even one bankrupt. If there really was a massive destruction of the economy, as the myth says, it would not be difficult to find the data.”

These arguments do not mean that everything in the story about “tulip mania” is fiction. Merchants actually participated in the frenzied tulip trade and paid exorbitant amounts of money for a few bulbs. And when buyers were unable to pay traders as much as they had promised in advance, the market collapsed and caused a small crisis. But only because it subverted social expectations.

“In this case, the difficulty is that almost all market relations were built on trust. Buyers promised to buy the bulbs from the traders, and then said, “I don’t care that I promised to buy this. Now I don’t need this product.” The courts didn’t want to get involved and so there was no one to force people to pay for the goods,” says Goldgar.

But “tulip mania” did not affect all sectors of society and did not cause the collapse of industry. “The lack of data on bankruptcies makes it difficult to draw a firm conclusion, but the results of the study suggest that speculation in tulip bulbs was not as widespread and crazy as is commonly believed,” writes economist Peter Garber.

Who spread the myth?

If “tulip mania” was not such a disaster, why was it presented in this light? It can be assumed that offended Christian moralists are to blame for this. With great wealth comes a wave of social anxiety. “The incredible level of success has gone to their heads. All the incredible stories documenting the economic devastation - the sailor thrown in jail and the chimney sweeps trying to get rich - came from propaganda pamphlets. They were spread by Dutch Calvinists, who feared that the tulip boom would lead to social decay. Their belief that this wealth was terrible has survived to this day,” writes historian Simon Schum, in his book “The Embarrassment of Wealth: Interpreting Dutch Culture in the Golden Age.”

“Some ideas are ineradicable, for example the one that God does not like cunning people and sends a plague on them. That's what people might have said in 1630, says Anne Goldgar, and the idea that cunning is a sin has survived into modern society. Pride comes before a fall."

Goldgar does not condemn directors and writers for misinterpreting the past. She is dissatisfied with the incorrect conclusions that historians and economists made in their works, further spreading the idea of ​​“tulip mania.” “I had no way of knowing that this story was a lie until I pulled up the old archives. It was an unexpected treasure,” says Goldgar.

A turbulent period in Dutch history when demand for bulbs began to outstrip supply and the commodity reached incredible prices.

One of the foreigners intrigued by tulips was Ohir Gielan de Bouzbeck, the Austrian ambassador to Turkey. (1555-1562 years). He brought several bulbs from Constantinople to Vienna, where they were planted in the gardens of Ferdinand I, the Habsburg emperor. There the tulips bloomed under the expert supervision of Charles de Lecluse, a French botanist better known by his Latin name, Charles Clusius.

Clusius' fame soon attracted the attention of Leiden University in the Netherlands, and he was persuaded to become curator of the university's botanical garden. In October 1593, with " secret supply of tulip bulbs", Clusius arrived in Leiden. A few months later, in the spring of 1594, Clusius's new garden became the site of the very first tulip to bloom in the Netherlands.

The rise of the tulip trade

In 1625, one bulb of a rare tulip variety could already cost 2,000 florins (florin is a gold coin weighing about 3.5 grams). Their trading was organized on the stock exchanges of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Haarlem and Leiden.

By 1635 the price had reached 5,500 florins. By the beginning of 1637, on average, prices for tulips increased 25 times.

● According to art historian Oliver Impey, it was cheaper to buy a tulip painting by Jan D. de Heem (the great 17th-century Dutch still life painter) than to buy a rare tulip bulb.

One onion was given as a bride's dowry, three were worth as much as a good house, and just one Tulip Brasserie onion was given for a thriving brewery. Bulb sellers earned huge profits. All conversations and transactions revolved around a single item - bulbs.

Constantly rising prices encouraged many families from the middle and poor strata of society to play on the tulip market. In order to buy bulbs and resell them at a higher price, houses, fortunes and businesses were mortgaged. Sales and resales were made many times, while the bulbs were not even removed from the ground. Fortunes doubled in moments. The poor became rich, the rich became super-rich. Trading bulbs on the stock exchange has become an uncontrolled market.

Futures contracts were often used for transactions (buyers paid money for future supply of bulbs), which received the figurative name “wind trade”.

● According to Bernstein, options were also used for transactions (the buyer received the right to buy or sell bulbs at a predetermined price in the future). It was the use of options that was one of the reasons for the formation of the “soap bubble” and its decline. Options appear to have given many newcomers the opportunity to enter a market that was previously closed to them.

● According to Charles Mackay, at one point 12 acres of land were offered for the Semper Augustus tulip.

Collapse in tulip prices

In February 1637, the number of sellers exceeded the number of buyers and an unexpected drop in prices occurred - no more than 300 florins were given for the most expensive bulbs. Started; in just one night, thousands of Dutch people were ruined. By the end of the year, prices fell by an average of 100 times. It was the collapse of an entire trade industry. Mackay argued that after the end of tulip mania, the Dutch economy was in a state of crisis, which is disputed by some modern scholars. Tulip mania also affected other European countries, but not to the same extent as Holland. For example, in 1800, a tulip bulb in England cost 15 guineas - a fairly substantial amount for those times.

The tulip craze survived the effects of tulip mania, and the tulip bulb growing industry began to flourish again. Indeed, by the end of the 18th century, Dutch tulips had become so famous that the Turkish Sultan Ahmed III imported thousands of tulips from Holland. So, after a long journey, the Dutch descendant of Turkish tulips returned to his “roots”.
Tulip mania has not yet been sufficiently studied and has not been the subject of thorough scientific analysis. The phenomenon of tulip mania first became widely known in 1841 after the publication of the book "The most common misconceptions and follies of the crowd" written by the English journalist Charles Mackay, and Alexandre Dumas's 1850 novel The Black Tulip.

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This story happened in the 17th century in Holland.

It all started with a botany professor Charles de Lecluse(Carolus Clusius) received a parcel from Turkey from the Austrian royal ambassador. The parcel contained tulip bulbs and seeds. Until this moment, tulips had never been seen in Europe. The professor liked the tulips so much that he sent them out free of charge throughout Austria.

After some time, a new emperor ascended the throne in Austria, and Charles de Lecluse had to leave for Holland, where he also began working as director of the botanical garden.
The Dutch also liked the tulips, but the professor did not want to share them with the Dutch. As a result, the Dutch simply stole the bulbs one night.
A few years later, tulips spread throughout all provinces.

Why have tulips become so popular?

The tulip has one peculiarity: for the first few years it can be one color, for example, red or yellow, but after a few years its color suddenly changes, stripes appear on the petals, each time in different shades. It is now known that this was the result of a viral disease of tulips, but at the time it seemed like a miracle.

Striped tulips are rare, so their prices were much higher than the usual varieties. Anyone whose tulips were changed, resulting in a completely new variety, could sell the bulbs of the new variety for tens or hundreds of times more than the original price of the variety from which they came.

In 1612, the Florilegium catalog with drawings of 100 varieties of tulips was published in Amsterdam. Many European royal courts became interested in the new symbol of prosperity. Tulips began to rise in price. In 1623, a bulb of the rare variety Semper Augustus cost 1,000 florins, and at the height of the tulip boom in 1634-1636 they paid up to 4,600 florins.
For comparison: a pig cost 30 florins, a cow - 100 florins.

The second reason for the tulip boom was the cholera epidemic of 1633-1635. Due to the high mortality rate in the Netherlands, there was a shortage of workers, and therefore wages increased. Ordinary Dutch people had extra money, and, looking at the tulip madness of the rich, they began to invest in their own tulip business.

Tulips are seasonal plants. Before the tulip boom, they were traded from May, when the flower bulbs were dug out of the ground, until October, when they were planted. Then trade stopped, and everyone waited for the next spring.
But now there was strong demand for tulips all year round, and deals began to be made in the form of contracts for the following year's harvest.
The next step was to introduce tulip futures.

At the end of 1635, tulips became “paper”: a large share of the 1636 “harvest” took the form of futures contracts.
Speculation in tulip contracts began.
Over time, there were tens of times more futures tulips than real ones.

The purchase and sale transaction then looked something like this:

“A nobleman buys tulips from a chimney sweep for 2,000 florins and immediately sells them to a peasant, while neither the nobleman, nor the chimney sweep, nor the peasant has tulip bulbs and does not intend to have them. And so more tulips are bought, sold, and promised than can be grown in Holland.”

The point is that, having buried the bulbs in October, it was unknown what would grow in the spring. Maybe the same tulips will grow, or maybe you'll get a new variety of tulips.
Maybe you will be lucky and a new species will grow from you.
But since everyone is constantly buying, and the price is going up, there is no point in waiting for spring, you can simply sell your contracts and already make a profit.

What happened?

This problem was first thought about at the end of 1636, when tulip growers and city magistrates saw that the trade was mainly in “paper” tulips. Due to the strong increase in the number of players on the tulip exchange, prices began to jump in both directions faster than the rise or fall of real demand.
We turned to experts who advised us to reduce purchases at the beginning of 1637. On February 2, purchases practically stopped; everyone was selling. Prices fell catastrophically, everyone went bankrupt.

The government realized that it could not blame any specific category of its citizens for the tulip madness. Everyone was to blame. Special commissions were sent around the country to examine disputes over tulip transactions. As a result, most sellers agreed to receive 5 florins out of every 100 that they were entitled to under the contracts.

The Tulip Fever lasted from 1625 to 1637. During this time, the Dutch economy in other areas came to a virtual standstill.
By the end of the fever, many went bankrupt, selling their farms to pay for their tulip deals.

Some believed that at this time the main competitor - England - managed to take over many Dutch markets abroad.
For a long time after this, Holland recovered from the consequences of the speculative fever.
And the tulips turned back into just flowers.

When economists encounter the phenomena of financial panic or financial collapse, they immediately think of such a phenomenon as tulip mania. Strictly speaking, the concept of “tulip mania” is a metaphor used in the field of economics. If you look in Palgrave's Dictionary of Economic Terms, you won't find any mention of the speculative mania of the seventeenth century in Holland. Instead, economist Guillermo Calvo, in his addition to the dictionary, defines tulip mania as follows: "Tulip mania is a phenomenon in which price behavior cannot be fully explained by underlying economic indicators."

The purpose of this work is to identify the features of the emergence of the first financial crisis in Europe and its consequences.

Many researchers agree that events occur in a certain cycle and that they can be repeated from time to time. In this regard, we can say that studying the historical facts of financial crises gives us the opportunity to avoid the mistakes of past generations.

According to Karl Marx, Holland at the beginning of the 17th century could be considered an ideal capitalist country. Almost immediately, foreign and colonial trade became the basis of its economic base. Dutch industry also received a strong boost at this time. The key to success is considered to be the political system of the Netherlands, which guaranteed the big bourgeoisie, which took control of all finance and trade in the country, unlimited dominance.

The “Tulip” epic rightfully bears the title of the world’s very first speculative race, which ultimately ended in collapse for the entire country, which was the leader at that time in economic terms. The excitement and crazy demand for tulips began in the Netherlands in the early 1620s and did not stop until 1937. The peak prices were recorded in a three-year period: from 1634 to 1637.

One of the foreigners intrigued by tulips was Ogier Ghislain de Busbeck, the Austrian ambassador to Turkey (1555-1562). He brought several bulbs from Constantinople to Vienna, where they were planted in the gardens of Ferdinand I, the Habsburg emperor. There the tulips bloomed under the expert supervision of Charles de Lecluse, a French botanist better known by his Latin name, Charles Clusius.

The tulip was a status symbol. He testified to belonging to the upper strata of society. Beautiful flowers of one color or another grew from the bulbs, and after a few years it suddenly changed: stripes appeared on the petals, each time in different shades. Only in 1928 was it established that a change in flower color is a disease of a viral nature (mosaic), which ultimately leads to the degeneration of the variety. But at the end of the 17th century it seemed like a miracle; the petals received an unusual and brighter color. These flowers were a symbol of luxury and their presence in the Dutch garden testified to the high status of the owners in society.

The reason for the frantic demand for tulip bulbs can be considered the publication in 1612 in the Dutch catalog “Florilegium” of almost 100 varieties of this flower. Over time, some European royal courts also became interested in this new symbol of prosperity. As a result, its price began to rise sharply. Realizing that you can make good money from tulips, almost all segments of the population began to engage in this business. The fever was explained by the expectation that soon more and more people would become interested in this flower, and prices for it would rise more than once.

Foreign capital begins to rapidly import into Holland, the cost of real estate rises, and the demand for luxury goods increases. People who had not previously thought about trading began to take an active interest in it and even mortgaged their homes, lands, and jewelry to buy as many tulip bulbs as possible in the hope of earning as much money as possible later.

Before this “flower” rush began, tulips were traded from May, when they were dug up, to October, when they had to be planted in the ground. The following spring, the flowers already delighted their owners. During the boom, the winter trade in seedlings became widespread. Most traders, despite all the risk, tried to buy tulips in winter: in this case, in the spring they could be sold for two or even three times more expensive! By the end of 1636, the lion's share of the year's harvest had become "paper", sold under "futures" contracts. As a result, speculators began to appear on the markets, trying to buy as many “paper” tulips as possible at the beginning of summer, hoping to resell them the following spring at an even higher price.

Prices for tulip bulbs were rising. But on February 2, 1637, the market overheated - prices reached such heights that demand fell sharply. The indebted and impoverished Dutch were left with a lot of tulip bulbs - but there was no one to sell them to. Of course, those who were lucky enough to be the first to sell the bulbs became rich in no time. Those who were not so lucky lost everything. That year, the price of bulbs fell 100 times. This price collapse hit the entire Dutch tulip industry. The tulip crisis became the cause of the subsequent financial crisis in Holland; it turned out that the entire economy of the country was focused on tulips. Affected citizens began to blame the government for provoking the tulip crisis, which adopted a number of amendments to the laws on tulip trade, limiting stock speculation. It is clear that the Dutch government only “closed the hole” that allowed tulip prices to skyrocket. Not everyone understood that the sooner the bubble of tulip mania burst, the easier the consequences would be.

The main dealers desperately tried to save the situation by organizing sham auctions. Buyers began to cancel contracts for the flowers of the summer season of 1637, and on February 24, the main tulip growers gathered in Amsterdam for an emergency meeting. The developed scenario for overcoming the crisis was as follows: contracts concluded before November 1636 were proposed to be considered valid, and subsequent transactions could be terminated unilaterally by buyers by paying 10% compensation. But the Supreme Court of the Netherlands, which considered manufacturers the main culprits in the mass ruin of Dutch citizens, vetoed this decision and proposed its own version. Sellers, desperate to get money from their customers, received the right to sell the goods to a third party at any price, and then claim the shortfall from the person with whom the original agreement was concluded. But no one wanted to buy anymore... The government understood that it could not blame any specific category of its citizens for this hysteria. Everyone was to blame. Special commissions were sent across the country to examine disputes over “tulip” transactions. As a result, most sellers agreed to receive 5 florins out of every 100 that they were entitled to under the contracts.

Three years of stagnation in the “non-tulip” areas of the Dutch economy: shipbuilding, agriculture, fishing - cost the country dearly. The scale of the shock that the Netherlands suffered in the 17th century is commensurate with the default of August 1998. Subsequent wars brought the country to a desperate state, accelerating the decline of Holland's trading power.

The tulip craze survived the effects of tulip mania, and the tulip bulb growing industry began to flourish again. Indeed, by the 18th century, Dutch tulips had become so famous that the Turkish Sultan Ahmed III imported thousands of tulips from Holland. So, after a long journey, the Dutch descendant of Turkish tulips returned to his “roots”.

Tulip mania has not yet been sufficiently studied and has not been the subject of thorough scientific analysis. The phenomenon of tulip mania first became widely known in 1841 after the publication of the book “The Most Common Delusions and Follies of the Crowd,” written by the English journalist Charles Mackay, and the novel “The Black Tulip” by Alexandre Dumas (1850).

In its development, the economy goes through stages of ups and downs, determined by the general laws of its development. Therefore, the development of the economic system is considered as a cyclical process. The tulip crisis, in turn, is an important stage in this cyclical process. The work reveals the peculiarities of the emergence of the first financial crisis in Europe, and we can conclude that everything in life comes back, and everything that seems new, in fact, has already happened.

You need to know what history and experience say around the world, and use this knowledge for the benefit of the prosperity of the country's financial life.

Literature:

1. McKay Ch. The most common misconceptions and madness of the crowd / M.: Alpina Business Books, 1998. – 318с

2. Bernstein P. L. Against the Gods: Taming Risk / Transl. from English - M.: JSC "Olymp-Business", 2000. - 400 p.

3. Douglas French “The whole truth about tulip mania” [article], 2007 Access mode: http://mises.org/

Perkov G.A.

Kramarenko A.A.

Donetsk National University